Volatility signals are flashing as Bollinger Band readings have tightened to levels rarely seen in Bitcoin’s history — a setup that often precedes explosive moves.
At Wednesday’s Wall Street open, BTC hovered near $113,112, trading sideways as the market braced for a massive $17.5 billion options expiry.
Bears Eye Max Pain at $107K
Market data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to $111,115 on Bitstamp before rebounding slightly above $113K. However, both buyers and sellers are struggling to establish dominance.
Crypto investor Ted Pillows noted that September often brings local bottoms for Bitcoin. Highlighting the $17.5B expiry, he said:
“Max pain sits around $107,000, and historically, BTC gravitates toward that level during major expirations. I believe one more sharp leg down is likely before reversal.”
Similarly, popular trader BitBull compared the current setup to Q1 2024, warning of a possible retest in the $103K–$105K range before a new uptrend takes hold. He added that whales may push BTC under its 100-day EMA ($111,900) to maximize pain before bouncing back.
Traders Expect a Big September Shakeout
Another analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, pointed out that Bitcoin’s weekly price swings are now the smallest they’ve been in two years — a sign that a breakout is imminent.
“Flip local resistance at $113K, and we can start talking reversal. But based on stats, either the $111K low or $115.3K high will be broken before the week ends,” he explained.
On higher timeframes, Bitcoin is on track to close its tightest monthly candle in over two years, reinforcing the expectation of a major price move soon.
Meanwhile, weekly Bollinger Bands have narrowed to extreme levels, historically a precursor to heightened volatility.
Bottom Line
With billions in options expiring, extreme compression on Bollinger Bands, and September’s bearish reputation, Bitcoin is primed for a decisive move. Traders are watching closely to see whether the market tests the $107K “max pain” zone or breaks upward into fresh strength.
